Published at Action Forex (ALL)
Sunday, 19 June 2016
Daily Report: European Majors Jump as "Remain" Camp Gained Momentum in UK
Published at Action Forex (ALL)
GBP/USD flying high as ‘Bremain’ odds surged to 74% - Rabobank
Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research at Rabobank, notes that the GBP/USD is up to 1.44 as ‘Bremain’ odds have surged to 74% along with the Bloomberg composite poll tracker ‘Brexit’ support dipping to 42% vs. 48% on 15 June.
Key Quotes
“However, there could potentially still be some room for ‘Anarchy in the UK’ markets, or at least volatility, if those odds start to shift back. (Of course, we all sincerely hope both sides of the referendum campaign will stick to their recent pledges to tone it down and remain mutually respectful following the appalling murder of MP Jo Cox last week.)”
Published at Forex NewsNZ: Consumer confidence posts seventh decline in the past nine quarters - Westpac
Satish Ranchhod, Senior Economist at Westpac, notes that the New Zealand’s consumer confidence has fallen for a second quarter and is now well below the peak reached in 2014, and is below its long-run average.
Key Quotes
“New Zealand households have become increasingly nervous about the economic outlook. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell to 106.0 in June (versus 109.6 in March). That’s the seventh decline in the past nine quarters, and leaves confidence at below average levels.
While households are feeling a little better about their current financial position, there has been growing pessimism about the economy’s trajectory. The number of households expecting favourable economic conditions over the next year has fallen for a second quarter, and the number expecting positive economic conditions in five years time has plummeted to the lowest level in 25 years.
This degree of nervousness about the economic outlook has historically been seen when the economy is in recession. But as last week’s GDP figures revealed, the economy is actually growing at a firm pace, with growth in the year to March coming in at 2.4%. And signs are that growth will continue around this pace for some time.”
Published at Forex NewsMarket Morning Briefing
Published at Action Forex (ALL)
ECB's Visco: Central banks ready to intervene in case of Brexit
In an interview with newspapers over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco was quoted by Reuters saying, "A British vote in favour of leaving the European Union is the risk that worries us the most at the moment."
Mr. Visco added, "We are keeping an eye on this risk day by day and all central banks, not just the European Central Bank, are ready to intervene with the conventional instruments they have: interest rates, repos, swaps."
Published at Forex NewsAsian stocks cheer Bremain leading, Nikkei 225 jumps +2%
The stocks on the Asian bourses extends Friday rebound and look solid at the beginning of an action-packed week ahead, with the sentiment likely to be driven by EU referendum held on June 23rd.
The Asian equities jump higher as easing Brexit fears reinforced risk-on trades into the markets, while higher oil and copper prices led strong gains on the energy and resource stocks.
Over the weekend, as string of Brexit opinion polls showed the votes shifting in favour of the Remain camp after last week tragic death of British Member of Parliament Jo Cox. BMG phone poll has 'Remain' leading by over 7 points, YouGov: 43% Leave, 44% Stay, 9% Undecided, Opinium: 44% Leave, 44% Stay, Survation: 42% Leave, 45% Stay, 13% Undecided.
Nikkei leads the show
The Japanese benchmark index, the Nikkei 225 bounces +2.21% to 15,943, while USD/JPY rises +0.41% to 104.60 levels. The Australian markets also followed suit, with the ASX 200 index up +1.12% at 5,220.
While the Chinese equities bucked the trend and trade in the red, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropping -0.47% below 2,900 levels, the CSI300 index loses -0.14%.. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallies +0.88% to 20,335.
Published at Forex NewsGold dumped amid risk-on ahead of a big week
Gold set-off the week on a bearish note and now remains heavily sold-off into renewed optimism after Bremain led the way, as reflected by latest Brexit polls conducted during the weekend.
Gold revisiting daily lows near $ 1280?
Currently, gold sinks -1.21% to 1282.95, having posted day’s high at 1292.24 and day’s low at 1279.97. The bears remain in charge at the start of a brand new week, as markets dump the safe-haven amid a renewed risk-on wave triggered by the Bremain votes leading the way.
Looking ahead, the upcoming week seems busy for the gold traders, as the EU referendum along with Yellen’s testimony are likely to hog the limelight ahead of Friday’s durable goods data from the US.
Gold Technical Levels
The metal has an immediate resistance at 1288 (5-DMA) and 1300 (psychological levels/ previous top). Meanwhile, the support stands at 1277.20 (10-DMA) below which doors could open for 1270 (round number).
Published at Forex NewsOligarchy: Iran Buys 100 Planes from Boeing
The transaction for the Obama administration was an easy one. We couldn’t steal the Iran’s $100 billion or so, which was frozen since those devils have been trying to build nuclear bombs. But the economy has been waning and the Boeing-Airbus lobby was strong. They convinced our autocrats to release the funds, in order to receive $60 billion in new plane contracts.
A fucking win-win.
Iran has signed a historic agreement with Boeing Co. to purchase 100 jetliners, concluding several stages of negotiations, an Iranian newspaper reports.
The plane maker has applied for a license from the U.S. Treasury to permit the deal and the final details will be revealed once government approvals are obtained, Ali Abedzadeh, director of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, said in an interview with Iran newspaper.The transaction would be the Chicago-based plane maker’s first in Iran since sanctions were lifted from the nation in January and follows a $27 billion agreement with Airbus Group SE for 118 planes, including the A380 and A350 models.
Granted, one of these planes might end up in one of our office buildings. Nevertheless, it was worth the risk.
The post Oligarchy: Iran Buys 100 Planes from Boeing appeared first on Trading with The Fly.
Published at Trading with The FlyForeign Exchange Market Commentary
Published at Action Forex (ALL)
APAC Currency Corner – A Week Of Reckoning
Published at Action Forex (ALL)
AUD/USD rebounds post-Tokyo on renewed optimism
A major turnaround in the risk conditions this Monday, set an upbeat tone around the AUD/USD ahead of a busy week AUD traders, with immediate focus now on Tuesday’s RBA minutes release.
AUD/USD bounces off lows ahead of 0.74 handle
Currently, the AUD/USD pair advances +0.66% at fresh three-day highs of 0.7444, having found strong support near 0.7408 region. The Aussie takes advantage of the risk-on trades persisting in the markets after the latest Brexit polls’ outcome swayed towards the Remain camp and therefore, eased Brexit fears to a great extent, as we remain just a few days away from the EU referendum scheduled this Thursday.
Moreover, rallying copper and oil prices also collaborated to the upside in the resource-linked Aussie, helping the bulls to extend the Asia gap up gains. While broad based US dollar sell-off also keeps the bids underpinned.
Nothing of note for the major today and therefore, attention shifts towards tomorrow’s RBA official Debelle’s speech and RBA May meeting minutes for fresh impetus on the Aussie.
AUD/USD Levels to watch
The pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7439/46 (June 16 & 15 high) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located at 0.7500 (round number). On the flip side, the immediate support located at 0.7408 (5-DMA/ daily low). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie 0.7380/79 (daily S3/50-DMA).
EUR/USD: Bullish opening gap and towards 1 .1400 as Bremain favoured
The shared currency maintains a bid tone against its American counterpart at the start of a big week, with EUR/USD through the roof beyond 50-DMA located at 1.1300.
EUR/USD extends bullish opening gap
Currently, EUR/USD jumps +0.69% and hovers near fresh weekly tops reached at 1.1358 pre-Tokyo open. The main currency pair extended its Friday’s upbeat momentum and opened this week with almost 60-pips bullish gap after the Asian traders cheered weekend’s Brexit opinion polls, which showed votes shifting in favour of ‘Remain’ camp.
Among the latest polls, BMG phone poll has 'Remain' leading by over 7 points, YouGov: 43% Leave, 44% Stay, 9% Undecided, Opinium: 44% Leave, 44% Stay, Survation: 42% Leave, 45% Stay, 13% Undecided.
However, further upside remains capped on the back of cross driven weakness, with the EUR/GBP down -0.75% below 0.78 handle as the GBP bulls remain in complete control across the board amid renewed optimism surrounding the EU referendum. The UK votes on EU membership on June 23rd.
Data-wise, we have a data-light trading session today, with a second-tier data from the Euroland in the German PPI numbers ahead of the German Buba monthly report release. While for the week ahead, all eyes will remain on the EU referendum.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.1369/77 (daily R1/ Jun 3 High). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.1400 (psychological levels). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.1300 (50-DMA) below which at 1.1266/42 (20 & 100-DMA) could be tested.
Morgan Stanley Advises: Board the Ark, Lads
In the event of a BREXIT, the world would blow up in a plume of black smoke. In that eventuality, all those not on the ark shall perish. The good folks over at Morgan are trying to do God’s work. You should let them.
“We suggest investors remain long duration across developed rate markets into the EU referendum,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Matthew Hornbach, the head of global interest-rate strategy in New York, wrote in a June 17 report. “Rates would fall much further on a vote to Leave than they would rise on a vote to Remain.”
The post Morgan Stanley Advises: Board the Ark, Lads appeared first on Trading with The Fly.
Published at Trading with The FlyU.K. BREXIT Bookmakers Sway Markets, A Global Rally is Underway
This is the height of all stupidity. If there was a pecking order and the dumbest shit ever was at the top, this would be the crown jewel.
Japanese markets are higher by 2%. U.S. futures are higher by 150. Crude is higher by 1%. The British fucking pound is mauling the dollar, up 1.5%. The yen is lower and so are bonds and gold.
Why?
Because some guys in the UK, with smashed upped noses and cigars shoved in their mouths are betting the U.K. will not leave the EU.
Bookmakers’ odds of the U.K. voting on June 23 to exit the 28-nation bloc fell to about 32 percent Sunday, with the poll from Survation for the Mail on Sunday newspaper showing 45 percent of people backed the “Remain” camp, while 42 percent supported “Leave.” The opinion poll is the first since the killing of pro-Europe lawmaker Jo Cox last week.
The post U.K. BREXIT Bookmakers Sway Markets, A Global Rally is Underway appeared first on Trading with The Fly.
Published at Trading with The FlyIntra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
The Week Ahead: EU Referendum Closing In
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Brexit Week Shenanigans Begin
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APAC Currency Corner – A week of reckoning
APAC Currency Corner – A week of reckoning
The June 23rd UK referendum on EU membership is expected to dominate the headlines this week as markets and trading desks prepare for the day of reckoning. Expect polls to continue driving markets as volatility increases ahead of the judgement day. Volatility may remain, but the more likely scenario is that traders will start to pare back positions on both short GBP and long JPY. Despite the uncertainty over Brexit, one thing is for certain; regardless of the outcome, there will be a massive market reaction.
I see two possible things traders should be on the lookout for early in the week. One is a mad dash to cover speculative Brexit positioning as we near the event. And two, is shots across the bow from central banks expressing their readiness to stand in front of unwanted and excessive post-Brexit currency moves.
Brexit – know when to fold them
The final weekend before the referendum and the GBPUSD is trading some 200 pips higher through 1.4575, while USDJPY is greater by 40 pips at 104.60, with the key GBPJPY hitting the accelerator moving above 152.00. In early trade, investors continue to view the likelihood of a UK exit a tad lower than priced in last week. Sterling was gaining momentum at the beginning of APAC trading session with GBPJPY zeroing in on the key 152 level. While liquidity has been decent this morning, it’s not expected to hold.
The Aussie – overshadowed by Brexit fears
With oil prices recovering and risk sentiment bouncing after the temporary suspension of the referendum campaign, the Aussie was supported into the weekend. In addition to the gyrations in risk sentiment around Brexit, local traders will be keeping an eye on the RBA meeting minutes to be released on Tuesday.
The market will be looking for any guidance that supports an August rate cut after the less-dovish tone of their post-meeting statement. However, the Brexit vote is the biggest driver for overall risk appetite.
Yen – finger on the trigger for BoJ
The Bank of Japan has been keeping its powder dry for the Brexit fallout. It’s likely the BoJ will intervene if JPY breaches 100 JPY as the rapid appreciation would be perceived to be unrelated to actual Japanese fundamentals. Other central banks are unlikely to take a passive view of the events as well. In fact, we should expect the BOE along with ECB to thwart unwanted currency speculation. It’s not out of the question that the US monetary authorities would also join in a consorted effort.
In early trade, the JPY has weakened against the USD trading above 104.70 on shifting investor sentiment. This move higher is driven by position squaring and fast money looking to speculate on changing referendum opinion polls. However, traders will be incredibly nimble and trade very defensively this week given the uncertain market conditions.
After the initial move higher on improving risk sentiment, USDJPY upside momentum has stalled despite the huge gains in Sterling. Indicating that even with a Remain Camp vote winning, USDJPY upside may be limited. Given risk sentiment will remain fragile, there’s a strong likelihood that opportunistic offers on USDJPY will emerge as we reach the 105.00 level. It certainly appears the Japans domestic economic issues are trumping Brexit to a degree as far the USDJPY recovery goes.
The Fed – a load of Bullard
A hawk seeks asylum in the doves’ nest. Uber-hawk James Bullard described the US economy as now mired in “secular stagnation,” and suggested that only one more rate hike is needed through 2018. Within a month, he has swung from dominate hawk to the ultra-dove while raising more questions than answers about Fed credibility. The Fed’s Open “Mouth” Committee has been too early in the economic cycle to make public statements and far too eager to grab the microphone.
In real Fed news, Chairman Janet Yellen will be in the spotlight giving testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. While the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony is typically a critical event for traders, with Brexit dominating news flows her testimony may only attract a fleeting glance.
CNH – position trimming to dominate pre-Brexit flow
China has released its May property price data. Based on a Reuters’ calculation, the average house price in 70 major cities increased by 0.9% month on month, down from 1.2% month-on-month in April. However, the annual increase lifted to 6.9% year-on-year from 6.2%. The hot property markets continue to be a bright spot for the Chinese economy.
On the currency front, smart money will likely continue to trim speculative bets ahead of Brexit.
MYR
The Ringgit continues to trade in a very tight range as investors, for the most part, remain sidelined until the UK referendum dust settles. Domestic factors and oil price moves continue to be upstaged by Brexit risk.
Thai Bhat
The THB should come into focus this week with a policy rate decision on June 22. The Bank of Thailand will likely watch the reaction from other regional central banks. With the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Indonesia reducing interest rates, there is a chance that the Bank of Thailand could thwart the consensus view and reduce the bench market by 0.25 bps.
Published at MarketPulse
Dollar's appreciation is a drag for the Fed - Nomura
Analysts at Nomura explained that in the longer run, they remain relatively comfortable with our expectations for 2 hikes in 2017 and another 2 hikes in 2018 from the Fed.
Key Quotes:
"One implication of a lower “neutral” rate is that monetary policy is providing less stimulus. Under these circumstances, a slower pace of rate adjustment may be warranted.
Also, Fed officials such as Governor Brainard have argued that the dollar may be more sensitive to US monetary policy than it has been in the past.
This would also suggest more drag from dollar appreciation than the FOMC might have assumed before."
Published at Forex NewsUSD/JPY struggles at same 104.80 resistance
USD/JPY has rallied at the start of the week with risk back on and the greenback unwinding elsewhere across the board, the Yen is the weakest performer, most notably vs sterling.
The week starts with the 'Bremain' camp leading in the polls and sterling up over 1.5% and GBP/JPY moving from 150.87 to 153.02 highs so far. USD/JPY struggles with near term resistance at 104.80 from lows of 104.40, an area of resistance since the 15th June recovery.
Brexit: BMG phone poll has 'Remain' leading by over 7 points
We have Yellen coming up, but that could be over shadowed by the EUR referendum headlines and even on the 23rh/24th later this week. For today, we had Japan's trade balance data for May arrived with a deficit of 40.7bn yen vs the expected Y 70bn and prior Y823.2bn while exports showed the fastest fall since January of this year of -11.3% y/y.
USD/JPY levels
Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained "the daily chart shows that the 100 DMA maintains a strong bearish slope far above the current level, whilst the technical indicators have lost downward strength, but remain within oversold territory, with no signs of changing course." Nearer term, the price is challenging the 20 sma on the 4hr sticks at 104.86 guarding 105.00 and 105.50/60 resistance. 103.80 is key support to the downside.
Mr. Yen: If yen breaks 100, intervention possible
Published at Forex NewsMr. Yen: If yen breaks 100, intervention possible
Eisuke Sakakibara, former Vice Finance Minister and in charge of intervention at the Ministry of Finance in late 90s, and known as Mr. Yen, is crossing the wires via Bloomberg, noting that the yen is gradually appreciating to 100. Sakakibara adds that if yen breaks 100, intervention is possible.
Published at Forex NewsUSDCHF - Vulnerable, Risk Builds Up On 0.9527 Zone
Published at Action Forex (ALL)
EURUSD - Prints Rejection Candle, Eyes Recovery
Published at Action Forex (ALL)
GOLD - Outlook Remains Higher On More Bullishness
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Commodities back on track with weaker dollar - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ noted that commodities moved higher as a weaker USD sparked a broad move back into risky asset classes.
Key Quotes:
"Investors shrugged off another rise in the US rig count, instead buoyed by continued signs that current prices are still unlikely to incentivise US producers to increase production. Nickel lead the gains amongst the base metals as concerns over rising surpluses eased. Norlisk Nickel, the world’s largest nickel producer said the market will be in a 60kt deficit this year, before tightening even further in 2017.
Iron ore remains stuck in a very tight range, with weak steel prices in China negating a pickup in investor demand as the USD weakened. Recent economic data in China as quelled the positive sentiment in the sector, with mills refraining from restocking."
Published at Forex NewsEUR/GBP bears held up by EUR/USD's rally on Bremain leading
EUR/GBP has been offered on the back of sterling on the rampage, fighting back with aggression on the back of the polls and Breamin in the lead as we start the week where the EU referendum has been scheduled for the 23rd and 24th in Asia.
EUR/GBP has dropped from 0.7831 and met recent lows of 0.7768 with recoveries testing the 0.7800 level. The move has been less violent as seen through cable with EUR/USD also on the bid with a move of over 150 pips so far on the session to the upside, taking out the 50 dma at 1.1297 with a high of 1.1359.
The latest polls favour the Bremain camp as follows:
Brexit: BMG phone poll has 'Remain' leading by over 7 points
YouGov: 43% Leave, 44% Stay, 9% Undecided
Opinium: 44% Leave, 44% Stay
Survation: 42% Leave, 45% Stay, 13% Undecided
EUR/GBP levels
EUR/GBP has found the 0.7998/78.6% retracement level a tough area once again. We have seen a low of 0.7768 so far, but it will need to go sub 0.7736 (26th April low) to alleviate upside pressure according to analysts at Commerzbank. "Meanwhile we remain unable to rule out a retest of nearby resistance lies at .7998/ the 78.6% retracement. This is the last defense for the 0.8116 April peak" A break of the 0.7654 (March low) opens up the 200 day ma at 0.7563.
Published at Forex NewsGBP/JPY up over 2% in early Asia as 'Remain' claws back
GBP/JPY reflects the improved risk sentiment at the open of markets in Asia, with the exchange rate being quoted between 152.50-152.60, havig reached multi--week highs at 153.00 just minutes ago, in what has been a very volatile start of the week for the Sterling.
Brexit: 'Remain' camp recovers ground
The latest opinion polls on the EU referendum over the weekend have taken a turn in favour of the 'Remain' camp, according to the most recent surveys conducted by BMG, Opinium, YouGov and Survation. As noted earlier: "The latest BMG poll (conducted over the phone) shows Remain with 53.3% vs Leave with 46.7%. Meanwhile, Opinium shows an even result of 44% for both Leave and Remain. As per YouGov, 43% want to Leave and 44% to Stay, with 9% Undecided. Lastly, the Survation poll shows 42% Leave, 45% Stay, 13% Undecided."
GBP/JPY outlook
The most recent rise in Asia has been fueled by a stops galore, as overly bearish GBP traders get taken out of their positions following the increased risk sentiment. At present, the immediate resistance can be found at 153.00, today's high, followed by every sequence of 50 pips upmove (mid and round numbers). On the downside, same criteria applies, with most of the bids/buying interest to re-emerge at mid/round numbers.
Published at Forex News
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